Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of October 27, 2026원문

선택한 조건 이번 주에 아칸소에 D4(특급 가뭄)가 발생할까요?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arkansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 27, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". Arkansas carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid October 27, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Arkansas market and make no claim about Arkansas's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. The first published release is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff; subsequent revisions will not be considered. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.원문