
우크라이나가 테르니를 재진입할 것인가...? 시장에서 '12월 31일' 선택지의 현재 확률은 28%이며, 24시간 동안 — 변했습니다.
1시간 변화 — · 1주 변화 -5.0%p. PolyView의 자체 예측이나 여론조사가 아닙니다.
선택한 조건 우크라이나가 2026년 12월 31일까지 테르니를 재점령할 것인가?
이 시장은 시장 생성 시점부터 지정된 날짜(동부 표준시 기준 오후 11시 59분)까지 ISW 지도에 따라 우크라이나가 도네츠크주 테르니(49.097467° N, 37.965439° E)의 어떤 영토라도 점령하면
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Terny, Donetsk Oblast, (49.097467° N, 37.965439° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (Story Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375; Web Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW Web Map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
변경 기록을 불러오는 중입니다.
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?