
다음 스웨덴 정부를 구성할 연립 정부는 어느 것인가? 시장에서 'S + MP + C + KD' 선택지의 현재 확률은 1%이며, 24시간 동안 — 변했습니다.
1시간 변화 — · 1주 변화 +0.8%p. PolyView의 자체 예측이나 여론조사가 아닙니다.
선택한 조건 스웨덴의 차기 연립 정부에 S + MP + C + KD가 포함될 것인가?
스웨덴 의회 선거가 2026년 9월 13일에 실시되었다. 이 시장은 2026년 스웨덴 의회 선거 이후 구성되는 첫 번째 집권 연립 정부에 따라 결정된다. 어떤 정당이 최소 1명 이상의 내각 장관을 배출해야만 집권 연립 정부의 일부로 간주된다. 내각 직책을 맡지 않고 단순히 정부를 지지하는 경우(예: 신임·공급 협약, 의회 지지 합의 또는 유사한 방식)는 포함되지 않는다. 이 시장에서 고려하는 정당은 다음과 같다: 스웨덴 사회민주노동당(S), 온건당(M), 스웨덴 민주당(SD), 좌파당(V), 중앙당(C), 기독민주당(KD), 녹색당(MP), 자유당(L). 그 외 정당은 고려하지 않는다. 해결은 시장 옵션 중 연립 정부에 포함된 정당과 가장 완전하게 일치하는 항목을 기준으로 한다. 선거 후 구성된 연립 정부가 시장 옵션에 나열된 모든 정당을 포함하고 다른 정당도 추가로 포함할 경우, 해당 옵션은 더 완전하게 연립 정부를 포괄하는 다른 시장 옵션이 존재하지 않는 한
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S), Moderate Party (M), Sweden Democrats (SD), Left Party (V), Centre Party (C), Christian Democrats (KD), Green Party (MP), and Liberals (L). All other parties will not be considered. Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed after the election includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition. For example: - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + C, the option “S + MP + C” will resolve to “Yes”, while “S + MP” will resolve to “No”. - If the governing coalition includes S + MP + KD, but no option explicitly lists those three together, the market will resolve to “S + MP” if that option is listed and no listed option more completely matches the coalition. In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the newly elected Riksdag. If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election. If any party forms a single-party government, the listed option for that party will be considered the governing coalition. If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market may resolve once the next Swedish government is officially formed following the Riksdag's vote on the Prime Minister and the taking of office by the Government. If the next Swedish governing coalition is not confirmed by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
변경 기록을 불러오는 중입니다.
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP + C + KD?
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