
Will SPD win at least 16% of all valid second votes?
원본 갱신 2026. 9. 18. 08:32 KST · 출처: Polymarket. 참여자들의 거래 가격이며 확정 결과가 아닙니다.
베를린 주 선거: SPD 득표율? 시장에서 '16%+' 선택지의 현재 확률은 5%이며, 24시간 동안 +4.3%p 변했습니다.
1시간 변화 -2.1%p · 1주 변화 +0.1%p. PolyView의 자체 예측이나 여론조사가 아닙니다.
선택한 조건 SPD가 전체 유효 제2투표의 16% 이상을 득표할 것인가?
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Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
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