
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?
원본 갱신 2026. 9. 16. 18:23 KST · 출처: Polymarket. 참여자들의 거래 가격이며 확정 결과가 아닙니다.
러시아가 9월 30일까지 스타브키로 진입할까? 시장의 현재 '그렇다' 확률은 25%, '아니다' 확률은 75%입니다.
1시간 변화 — · 1주 변화 +13.5%p. PolyView의 자체 예측이나 여론조사가 아닙니다.
선택한 조건 러시아가 9월 30일까지 스타브키로 진입할까?
한국어로 정리하고 있어요…
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
변경 기록을 불러오는 중입니다.