
의회에 몇 명의 무소속 의원이 선출될 것인가? 시장에서 '3' 선택지의 현재 확률은 5%이며, 24시간 동안 +0.8%p 변했습니다.
1시간 변화 — · 1주 변화 -2.6%p. PolyView의 자체 예측이나 여론조사가 아닙니다.
선택한 조건 2026년 의회에 무소속 의원 3명이 선출될 것인가?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market. In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.원문
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of individuals elected in the midterm elections to the United States Senate and United States House of Representatives who are neither the nominee of nor have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Democratic or Republican parties. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. Senate seats that are not up for election under these rules will not be considered. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party or lack of party under which the member was elected. The caucus decisions of Senate and House members elected as independents will not be considered for purposes of this market. In the event that the results of one of the listed Senate races is not determinable by March 31, 2027, it will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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Will 3 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?
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