This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.원문

확률 변경 기록

변경 기록을 불러오는 중입니다.

원문·출처와 데이터 다운로드

원문과 공개 자료

사용자가 직접 확인할 수 있는 출처

Will Republicans win Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, and lose Alaska, Kansas, and Maine?

Polymarket 원본 시장 데이터Gamma API · 시장 ID 6273788

데이터 내려받기현재 시장과 확률 이력

JSON CSV

이 시장의 번역·데이터 오류 신고 →

데이터 기록

원본 시장 ID: 6273788
이벤트 ID: 1262243
원본 갱신: 2026. 10. 29. 11:22 KST
언어: 한국어 번역 대기 · 원문 선택 가능

수집·번역 방법론 →번역·데이터 오류 신고 →

선택지별 확률

None원문-7.5%p18%

IA, KS원문+6.5%p11%

IA, KS, ME, TX원문+3.6%p8%

All 7원문+6.3%p8%

KS원문+0.3%p7%

IA원문+4.0%p5%

IA, KS, ME원문-2.2%p3%

IA, KS, TX원문+0.7%p2%

KS, ME원문+0.1%p2%

IA, KS, ME, OH, TX원문-5.0%p2%

IA, KS, ME, OH원문+0.3%p1%

IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX원문-0.3%p1%

IA, ME원문+0.5%p1%

AK, IA, KS, ME, TX원문-16.5%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX원문-0.6%p<1%

IA, KS, OH원문-2.1%p<1%

OH원문-10.6%p<1%

TX원문-10.2%p<1%

AK, IA, ME, OH, TX원문-2.8%p<1%

IA, KS, ME, MI, TX원문-3.9%p<1%

KS, TX원문-13.7%p<1%

ME원문-0.6%p<1%

AK, KS, ME, OH, TX원문-1.2%p<1%

AK, IA, KS원문-3.9%p<1%

KS, MI, OH원문+0.5%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, OH원문-1.6%p<1%

IA, ME, MI, TX원문-1.5%p<1%

IA, TX원문-4.3%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX원문-1.5%p<1%

AK, ME, MI, TX원문-1.3%p<1%

IA, MI원문-2.8%p<1%

KS, OH원문-0.1%p<1%

OH, TX원문-1.5%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX원문-0.8%p<1%

KS, ME, MI, OH, TX원문-1.6%p<1%

AK, KS, OH, TX원문-1.6%p<1%

IA, KS, ME, MI원문-0.6%p<1%

IA, KS, MI원문-8.3%p<1%

KS, MI, TX원문—<1%

KS, MI원문-0.9%p<1%

MI원문-19.5%p<1%

AK, ME, MI, OH원문-1.7%p<1%

IA, KS, MI, TX원문-15.4%p<1%

KS, ME, OH, TX원문-2.5%p<1%

IA, ME, TX원문-3.6%p<1%

IA, OH원문-2.6%p<1%

IA, KS, OH, TX원문—<1%

IA, KS, MI, OH, TX원문-1.1%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, ME원문-2.8%p<1%

ME, MI, TX원문-1.9%p<1%

AK, IA원문-1.3%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI원문-5.3%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, ME, OH원문-1.1%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, OH, TX원문-1.5%p<1%

AK, KS, ME, MI, OH원문-2.1%p<1%

AK, KS, ME, MI원문-1.8%p<1%

ME, TX원문-1.8%p<1%

MI, TX원문-2.6%p<1%

AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX원문-0.4%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, MI, OH원문-2.8%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, TX원문-1.8%p<1%

AK, IA, MI, OH원문-1.7%p<1%

IA, ME, OH, TX원문-1.8%p<1%

IA, MI, OH, TX원문-1.3%p<1%

AK, ME, TX원문-1.9%p<1%

AK, OH, TX원문-1.8%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, MI, TX원문-3.6%p<1%

AK, IA, ME, MI, OH원문-3.6%p<1%

AK, IA, MI, OH, TX원문-1.3%p<1%

AK, IA, ME, MI원문-1.5%p<1%

IA, ME, MI, OH원문-2.3%p<1%

KS, ME, MI, OH원문-1.2%p<1%

AK, IA, ME원문-17.3%p<1%

AK, IA, TX원문-1.8%p<1%

AK, ME, MI원문-2.1%p<1%

AK, ME, OH원문-1.1%p<1%

IA, ME, MI원문-1.9%p<1%

IA, ME, OH원문-1.4%p<1%

IA, MI, OH원문-1.7%p<1%

KS, ME, MI원문-1.8%p<1%

KS, ME, OH원문-1.7%p<1%

KS, ME, TX원문-8.6%p<1%

MI, OH, TX원문-1.4%p<1%

AK, KS원문-3.4%p<1%

MI, OH원문-1.5%p<1%

AK, KS, ME, MI, TX원문-2.7%p<1%

AK, KS, MI, OH, TX원문-0.4%p<1%

AK, IA, ME, OH원문-1.3%p<1%

AK, IA, MI, TX원문-1.9%p<1%

AK, KS, ME, TX원문-1.9%p<1%

AK, KS, MI, TX원문-0.2%p<1%

KS, MI, OH, TX원문-3.3%p<1%

ME, MI, OH, TX원문-1.8%p<1%

AK, IA, OH원문-2.5%p<1%

AK, KS, MI원문-2.5%p<1%

AK, KS, OH원문-1.5%p<1%

AK, MI, OH원문-1.1%p<1%

AK, MI, TX원문-1.8%p<1%

IA, OH, TX원문-2.9%p<1%

ME, MI, OH원문-0.8%p<1%

ME, OH, TX원문-3.4%p<1%

AK, MI원문-1.5%p<1%

AK, OH원문-3.1%p<1%

AK, TX원문-3.3%p<1%

ME, MI원문-0.4%p<1%

ME, OH원문-1.9%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH원문-0.5%p<1%

AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX원문-1.2%p<1%

AK, IA, ME, MI, TX원문-1.9%p<1%

AK, ME, MI, OH, TX원문—<1%

IA, KS, ME, MI, OH원문-0.5%p<1%

IA, ME, MI, OH, TX원문-0.5%p<1%

AK, IA, KS, MI원문-1.8%p<1%

AK, IA, ME, TX원문-0.5%p<1%

AK, IA, OH, TX원문-1.8%p<1%

AK, KS, ME, OH원문-1.8%p<1%

AK, KS, MI, OH원문—<1%

AK, ME, OH, TX원문-1.1%p<1%

AK, MI, OH, TX원문-16.4%p<1%

IA, KS, MI, OH원문-1.6%p<1%

KS, ME, MI, TX원문-1.1%p<1%

AK, IA, MI원문-1.5%p<1%

AK, KS, ME원문—<1%

AK, KS, TX원문-1.4%p<1%

IA, MI, TX원문-1.5%p<1%

KS, OH, TX원문—<1%

AK, ME원문-0.9%p<1%

AK원문-3.5%p<1%