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전체 시장
사회진행 중원문

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

선택한 항목October 3162%
현재 수치 요약

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...? 시장에서 'October 31' 선택지의 현재 확률은 62%이며, 24시간 동안 -8.5%p 변했습니다.

원본 데이터 갱신 2026. 9. 4. AM 5:32:07 · 시장 가격 기반이며 확정 결과나 여론조사가 아닙니다.
이 시장 공유하기핵심 수치와 출처 안내가 한 번에 정리됩니다.

October 3162%-8.5%p 오늘
1일1주1개월전체
1시간—
24시간-8.5%p
1주-17.5%p
누적 거래량1.2만 달러

시장 핵심 정보

현재 공개 데이터에서 계산
현재 선두October 3162%
선두 격차13.5%pSeptember 30 대비
선택 항목 순위1위October 31 · 62%
상위 3개 합계112%표시된 시장 가격 단순 합계

위 수치는 원본 시장 가격을 정리한 정보이며 PolyView의 예측이나 의견이 아닙니다.

시장 설명과 판정 기준

원문의 의미와 예외 조건을 확인하세요
마감11월 1일
상태진행 중
선택 항목October 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. personnel directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic action directed against a cartel on foreign soil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. "U.S. personnel” refers to members of the U.S. Armed Forces and officers or employees of any U.S. government department or agency acting in an official capacity. An anti-cartel operation or kinetic action is “directed against a cartel” if it explicitly targets a cartel, a narcotics-trafficking organization, a narco-terrorist organization, or the personnel, assets, infrastructure, or activities of any such group or organization. A specific cartel or organization need not be named. “Foreign soil” means the terrestrial territory of a country other than the United States, including internal waters within that territory. Territorial seas, other maritime zones, and airspace are excluded. Where borders are disputed, territory claimed by and under the de facto control of a foreign country as of market creation will qualify. Qualifying operations include actions in which U.S. personnel directly engage cartel personnel, assets, or infrastructure on foreign soil. For example, qualifying operations may include a raid; entry, breach, or search of a target site; a search, arrest, apprehension, detention, boarding, interdiction, or seizure; disabling or destroying cartel assets or infrastructure; or direct ground combat against cartel personnel. To qualify, U.S. personnel must be physically present on foreign soil and themselves carry out or attempt a qualifying operational action against a cartel target. Mere presence on foreign soil, indirect participation in a joint operation, or involvement limited to training, intelligence, surveillance, logistics, support, advisory, command-and-control, coordination, reconnaissance, patrols, transportation, force protection, inspections, demonstrations, media or information campaigns, or similar activities will not count. Only operations in which direct U.S. participation is confirmed by official statements from the U.S. government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will qualify. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. Qualifying kinetic actions include air strikes and surface-to-surface missile strikes, initiated by U.S. personnel, directed against a cartel. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. The occurrence, attribution to U.S. personnel, timing, location, target, and nature of U.S. participation in a potentially qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action will be determined primarily from official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. Where credible reporting indicates that a potentially qualifying action occurred within the market timeframe but any fact required for qualification is materially disputed or inconclusive, the market will remain open with respect to that action until the earlier of: i) confirmation that the action qualifies through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting; or ii) 11:59 PM ET on the third full calendar day after the first credibly reported evidence of the action. The date of the first credible report will not count as one of the three full calendar days. If this period ends before the specified date and the available evidence remains inconclusive, the market will remain open pending later confirmation or a subsequent qualifying action. If the period extends past the specified date, the market will remain open until the period ends. After the specified date and the expiration of any applicable three-day period, the market will resolve to “No” unless a qualifying anti-cartel operation or kinetic action has been established through official statements from the U.S. government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.

원문과 공개 자료

사용자가 직접 확인할 수 있는 출처
Polymarket 원본 시장 데이터Gamma API · 시장 ID 3669980
데이터 내려받기현재 시장과 확률 이력
JSONCSV
이 시장의 번역·데이터 오류 신고 →

선택지별 확률 · 날짜순

August 31+0.5%p2%September 30+9.0%p48%October 31-8.5%p62%

확률 정보만 제공하며 거래는 지원하지 않습니다.

시장 정보

24시간 거래량
149달러낮음 · 318위 밖
유동성
3,577달러낮음 · 399위 밖
마감
11월 1일 · D-59
업데이트 2026. 9. 4. AM 5:32:07

데이터 기록

원본 시장 ID
3669980
이벤트 ID
865764
원본 갱신
2026. 9. 4. AM 5:32:07
언어
원문 표시
수집·번역 방법론 →번역·데이터 오류 신고 →