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전체 시장
정치진행 중원문

Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?

선택한 항목Eric Trump5%
현재 수치 요약

Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election? 시장에서 'Eric Trump' 선택지의 현재 확률은 5%이며, 24시간 동안 — 변했습니다.

원본 데이터 갱신 2026. 9. 3. PM 11:52:13 · 시장 가격 기반이며 확정 결과나 여론조사가 아닙니다.
이 시장 공유하기핵심 수치와 출처 안내가 한 번에 정리됩니다.

Eric Trump5%— 오늘
1일1주1개월전체
1시간+0.3%p
24시간—
1주-0.1%p
누적 거래량240달러

시장 핵심 정보

현재 공개 데이터에서 계산
현재 선두J.D. Vance49%
선두 격차27.0%pMarco Rubio 대비
선택 항목 순위4위Eric Trump · 5%
상위 3개 합계78%표시된 시장 가격 단순 합계

위 수치는 원본 시장 가격을 정리한 정보이며 PolyView의 예측이나 의견이 아닙니다.

시장 설명과 판정 기준

원문의 의미와 예외 조건을 확인하세요
마감11월 7일
상태진행 중
선택 항목Eric Trump

This market will resolve according to the first individual that Donald Trump endorses for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential Election. An endorsement is defined as a statement by Donald Trump that i) is made publicly (e.g., through a press release, an on-the-record interview, a speech, a campaign event, a post from a verified account on social media); ii) explicitly and unambiguously expresses unique support for an individual as a candidate for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election; and iii) is characterized by a consensus of credible reporting as an official endorsement by Donald Trump of the individual for President in the 2028 United States presidential election. An endorsement of an individual for the Republican Party’s nomination to the 2028 United States Presidential election will qualify. Endorsements of a candidate for the Democratic Party's nomination without also endorsing that candidate for President in the general election will not qualify. The following will not be considered endorsements: positive or favorable comments about a candidate without a clear public statement of direct support; conditional statements giving support only if certain conditions are met; statements equally expressing support for multiple candidates (e.g., “I support Marco and J.D.”); statements expressing opposition to a candidate without endorsing any candidate; private or non-public statements; and statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not reflecting genuine support. An endorsement of a ticket comprising a presidential candidate and a vice-presidential candidate constitutes a qualifying endorsement only of the individual endorsed for President. If the endorsement is of a ticket with undefined presidential and vice-presidential roles, or the roles on an endorsed ticket cannot be determined by the statement itself or a consensus of credible reporting, no qualifying endorsement will be deemed to have occurred. If Donald Trump issues multiple concurrent statements meeting this standard, directed at different individuals, this will not constitute a qualifying endorsement and this market will remain open and resolve based on the first standalone qualifying endorsement issued. Endorsements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a singular public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech). Endorsements via social media count only from verified accounts controlled by Donald Trump. Likes, reposts, or shares alone do not constitute a qualifying endorsement. If Donald Trump officially files his candidacy for the 2028 United States Presidential election before issuing a qualifying endorsement, this market will resolve to “Donald Trump.” Statements alone will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Donald Trump.” Once a qualifying endorsement has occurred, subsequent retractions, rescissions, or endorsements of other individuals will not affect the determination of the first individual endorsed. If Donald Trump does not issue any qualifying endorsements, or file his own candidacy, by November 6, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution sources for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

원문과 공개 자료

사용자가 직접 확인할 수 있는 출처
Polymarket 원본 시장 데이터Gamma API · 시장 ID 3229186
데이터 내려받기현재 시장과 확률 이력
JSONCSV
이 시장의 번역·데이터 오류 신고 →

선택지별 확률

J.D. Vance-0.5%p49%Marco Rubio—22%Donald Trump Jr.—8%Eric Trump—5%Donald Trump—4%Vivek Ramaswamy-0.4%p2%Elon Musk-0.1%p1%Ivanka Trump-0.1%p<1%Glenn Youngkin—<1%Ted Cruz—<1%Greg Abbott—<1%Tulsi Gabbard—<1%Byron Donalds—<1%Sarah Huckabee Sanders—<1%Ron DeSantis—<1%Thomas Massie—<1%Brian Kemp—<1%Rand Paul—<1%Tucker Carlson—<1%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—<1%Marjorie Taylor Greene—<1%

확률 정보만 제공하며 거래는 지원하지 않습니다.

시장 정보

24시간 거래량
0달러낮음 · 311위 밖
유동성
762달러낮음 · 366위 밖
마감
11월 7일 · D-796
업데이트 2026. 9. 3. PM 11:52:13

데이터 기록

원본 시장 ID
3229186
이벤트 ID
773641
원본 갱신
2026. 9. 3. PM 11:52:13
언어
원문 표시
수집·번역 방법론 →번역·데이터 오류 신고 →